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In the winter of 2006, Ned Colletti and Bill Stoneman independently decided that the Dodgers and Angels needed a pricey center fielder. Ned collected Juan Pierre while Bill went for Gary Matthews’ junior to fill the hole. When the baseball world heard the numbers and years involved to sign these monuments to mediocrity, the howls of derision were heard far and wide. It is not often that the sabermetricians and old schoolers find common ground, but in this case, both sides agreed that L.A.’s General Managers had been taken for a ride. Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus had this to say about the Gary Matthews deal:

“This contract may be the most perfect example ever of a bad free-agent contract. It’s a ton of money for a long commitment to a player with a vanishingly small track record of success. Eight months ago, the idea that Gary Matthews Jr. might command a five-year contract would have been laughable. It’s no less so today, but here we are. We’re here because baseball teams remain incapable of distinguishing between the best four months of a player’s life and a sudden change in ability at 31 years old, despite the fact that the latter is as rare as a bad “How I Met Your Mother” scene.”

Up the 5 Freeway, Andrew at True Blue gave his take on the Pierre signing:

“Pierre is the very definition of an out machine (he’s ranked 1st, 2nd, 2nd, and 1st in outs over the last four years). Almost every G.M. has accepted the fact that outs are valuable, and shouldn’t be thrown away. Ned failed to get that memo, apparently. J.D. Drew left the Dodgers with a large on base percentage hole and 11 million dollars to fill the gap that he left. Ned Colletti has decided to take that money, and fill the hole with the biggest out maker in baseball.”

And this is just looking at Juan Pierre at face value. When you factor in Dodger stadium and aging, it gets even worse.

Which GM made the more egregious error was a matter of running debate, but most agreed they had paid above sticker price to bring a Yugo into their clubhouses. As the 2007 season ended, both Stoneman and Colletti claimed the Angels and Dodgers respectively got what they expected from their free agent center fielders.

Future actions belied their words.

I’ll forgive you for suffering some deja vu this past offseason, because it looked remarkably similar to the one from a year before. Again, the Angels struck first by inking Torii Hunter to play center field for them, thus ending the short-lived-but highly-touted Gary Matthews Junior Center Field Era. Where Matthews Jr. will actually play in 2008, given the glut of outfielders the Angels carry in Vlady, Garrett Anderson, Reggie Willits, and Juan Rivera is an open question. Wherever it is, it won’t be center field.

The Dodgers, not to be outdone by their cousins to the South, signed Andruw Jones to take over in center field for Pierre. Jones only signed a two year deal, but Scott Boras made sure that he received a few dollars more per year then Hunter, so he could boast he was the highest paid center fielder in baseball. Not bad for a guy who batted .222 in ‘07 and his saw his home runs drop from 41 to 26. It pays to be bad, as Juan Pierre can attest.

That means Pierre will move to a) left field, b) the bench, or c) another team. One of the more curious stories of 2008 will be if Juan Pierre gets more playing time then either Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier, considering he is the least gifted baseball player of them all. Still, it’s certainly a possibility. One thing is for certain, if Pierre’s consecutive games streak doesn’t end in 2008, fans might just might riot in protest.

But the symmetry between two winters of liberal spending for center fielders doesn’t end there for the Dodgers and Angels. Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones have many of the same attributes:

1. Multiple Gold Glove Winners

2. Since 2000 Torii has hit 183 home runs to lead all AL center fielders. Andruw Jones has hit 288 to lead all NL center fielders.

3. Peak years may already be behind them.

4. Strange spelling of the first name.

On the surface it would appear that the GM’s, this time Tony Reagins for the Angels, got it right this time as Hunter and Jones have been the preeminent center fielders for their respective leagues since the start of the 21st century. Hunter is a 7-time Gold Glove center fielder who has became a Top Plays institution over at ESPN. While he’s a bit overrated with the stick, Hunter he has increased his offensive output for the last four years, culminating in his solid contract year in 2007. Unlike Matthews he has a consistent resume to hang his hat on, and for the first couple of years at least, the Angels should get the production they paid for.

Andruw Jones has won 10 Gold Gloves and combined for 92 home runs during the 2005/2006 seasons, but everything good about Andruw happened before last year. The Dodgers are betting $36 million that his shoddy 2007 season was either the result of injury or bad luck and not the 1st sign of a serious decline in his skills. The man played over 1,500 games before his 30th birthday and has a lot of wear and tear on his increasingly big frame. Most baseball pundits felt the Andruw Jones signing was a good one, Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus felt it was one of the best this winter:

“One year or two, this is a fantastic deal for the Dodgers, who get back-end-of-peak years from a Hall of Fame player without committing to his decline phase. Jones will bounce back in 2008, and he’ll be a seven-win player over the two years of the deal. That’s an enormous addition for a team that has been shooting itself in the foot for too long. What it means for Ethier or Matt Kemp is something that can be hashed out, but again, the player in the way isn’t Jones, it’s Pierre, who was a bad signing at the time, and remains so today. The Dodgers have an opportunity to show just how well they understand sunk costs by relegating Pierre to a fourth outfielder’s role, to which he’d be reasonably suited. It would also give us a chance to test the whole “character” framework, to see if the fourth-best outfielder on the roster is able to accept that he, in fact, is that, and sublimate his desire to play more for the good of the team. That’s leadership, right?”

I love this contract. It will be far and away the smartest thing any team does this winter, and it pushes the Dodgers up a little bit closer to the Diamondbacks in the 2008 NL West race.

Keith Law of ESPN had this to say about the signing:

“Jones is still one of the best defensive center fielders in the game, and up until 2007 — when he allegedly played with a hyper-extended elbow — was good for an OBP near .350 and 30-40 homers every year. He’s also about to turn 31, so he’s still in or close to his prime as a hitter. And the Dodgers get the advantage of two of his peak or near-peak years without having to sign him into his mid- or late 30s.”

Even if his offense doesn’t come all the way back, just the fact he will be gliding around in center field should bring smiles to the pitching staff and fans alike. Even though age and weight mean he’s no longer the uber-Gold Glove center fielder he once was, Jones will still be the best defensive center fielder to grace Chavez Ravine since the days of 3 Dog.

Colletti and Reagins hope the pricey additions of 2007 will be able to do what their doppelgangers from ‘06 weren’t- live up to the mega million contracts. It’s rare for teams to sign mega deals with players who play the same position in consecutive years, but both Los Angeles teams have managed to do it.

Now fans are hoping they got it right the second time around.

Phil Gurnee, co-author of True Blue LA, takes a look at the current, past, and future of his Los Angeles Dodgers. Mixing a totally subjective viewpoint with statistical analysis, he looks at baseball from both sides of the mirror.

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