SportsHubLA

It is an election year and, as always, you can tell which way the local scribes are voting by what they are writing. And as in any election year, the airwaves/Internetwaves are filled with a lot of rumors, half-truths, and the occasional ugly reality. One nugget making the rounds this spring is that Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp are battling for the title of starting right fielder for the Dodgers. From Tony Jackson of the Daily News in his blog after the first game of Tuesday afternoon’s split squad double header:

This RF battle is starting to heat up. Ethier raised his average from .182 to .267 in a single afternoon. Kemp is hitting .462, and I assume will play tonight.

Now heading into Spring Training, most of us expected the battle to be over left field, but Jackson is quite adamant that Juan Pierre will be the regular occupant of that spot, and the only fight for playing time is going on between Kemp and Ethier in right. The sad thing- and here’s where we get to the ugly truth part I mentioned earlier- is that Jackson, generally reliable on such issues, is probably right.

Bill Plaschke of the Times thinks that Juan Pierre is a good fit, that Juan Pierre is a good baseball player, and had nothing to do with the collapse of the Dodgers last summer. I’m not sure why, but I’m guessing that Bill still thinks that speed is more important then getting on base. Of course, this is the same scribe who last summer was writing that we should be trading the best 22 year old outfielder in the game, in Matt Kemp. It doesn’t matter how many single sentence paragraphs he writes, Plaschke is usually wrong when it comes to baseball. But he does have an audience, so to counter his move in this morning’s paper, I present a different voice. The voice of reason. I’d rather be writing about Tuesday’s debut of our latest, possibly greatest, hot prospect, but here we are. Consider it a call of duty.

When you hear the local scribes trumpeting the virtues of Juan Pierre, they always trot out the same tired arguments.

1. Juan Pierre is a hard worker.

2. Juan Pierre is game changer, because of his speed.

3. Juan Pierre is a world champion (with the Marlins in ‘03).

No one doubts that Juan Pierre works hard, but does he work hard on his weaknesses or his strengths? Until Juan Pierre works on getting on base, I’ll continue to be unimpressed with the hours he logs in the cage, the weight room, or doing his conditioning work. His industry is no different than others in that regard. I’ve worked with guys who put in the ten and twelve hour days, but at the end of the week the “talented” guys still outproduced them no matter how “hard” these less talented folks worked. Process is important, but more than results?

Juan Pierre would be a game changer if he got on base instead of leading the league in outs every year. Last season, once he actually got there, he was the best baserunner in the game. Not just with stolen bases, but doing everything a base runner does. Going from first to third, second to home, and avoiding outs on the basepaths. If he just got on base at a clip reminescent of Brett Butler I wouldn’t be writing this article.

Juan Pierre is certainly a World Champion, and was a key cog for the Marlins in ‘03. But that was five years ago, and Juan Pierre has deteriorated in performance from 2004 to 2007. If Juan Pierre was hitting .325 and getting on base at a .360 clip he’d be worth his contract.

As the table shows, Juan Pierre no longer gets on base enough to warrant taking playing time from a player like Andre Ethier, who may not be spectacular in any one area but does everything well. A little power, a little OBP, excellent defender, and great arm. Plus, you will all love this. He works hard, very hard.

The idea that Kemp would be in a platoon after putting up these numbers as a 22 year old would be a historically bad decision. Kemp had one of the greatest seasons for someone of his age since the game was integrated. You don’t bench that kind of talent unless the primary goal is to not field the most talented team possible. That, by the way, isn’t a good goal.

Perhaps you’ve noticed I’ve used the words “on base” about a gazillion times in a relatively short column. Why? Because the ability to do it is the most important aspect of a team’s ability to score. You must get on base to score, and must score to win. Someone who gets on base at a .330 clip is hurting the offense, not helping it. When you combine Pierre’s low OBP with zero power you get a huge negative effect on the ability to score. Brett Butler was a great lead off hitter because he understood what his job was. Juan Pierre has never been Brett Butler and simply doesn’t have enough game anymore to be taking at bats away from real Major Leaguers.

To say he wasn’t a part of the Dodger offensive collapse last year demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of what goes into scoring runs. Getting on base and not making outs are at the top of the list. Pierre does not get on base nearly enough, and because of that (and remarkable durability) has made more outs then anyone in the 21st century. Add in his questionable defensive skills and the question has to be asked: How was he not a contributor to L.A.’s collective woes last season? His defense in center field was so bad that even Ned Colletti, who gave him the big deal to begin with, realized he needed to be moved.

The World Champion Boston Red Sox understand the important of getting on base. The early Joe Torre World Champion Yankees understood it. The greatest players in baseball understood it.

Juan Pierre and Ned Colletti, apparently, do not.

If the Dodgers choose Juan Pierre over Andre Ethier it will be a mistake. If they choose Juan Pierre and make Ethier and Kemp platoon it will be a travesty that could very well be the difference between winning and losing in a very tight NL West.

Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus had this to say about the situation:

There are four outfielders for three spots, and it’s excruciatingly clear to anyone familiar with baseball who ranks fourth among them. However, the likelihood that the Dodgers relegate Juan Pierre to a bench role is nil. Every PA he takes from Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier is a mistake.

One move to make: Trading Pierre for whatever he’ll bring back, even if it means eating $10-15 million. Pierre would actually be a decent extra outfielder; it’s just not likely that the Dodgers would do that, or that he would be all that happy in the role. Having Pierre around just increases the chance that he’ll take time away from better players. There are people who don’t like it when we say players aren’t good, and saying this about a known nice guy like Pierre tends to fire up the opponents of performance analysis. Playing him regularly on a corner is just baseball malpractice, however, and the Dodgers have to avoid that temptation.

While Keith Law was succinct and to the point:

…any scheme that puts Pierre in an everyday role hurts their offense almost as much as it hurts my eyes…

Juan Pierre has played for the Rockies, Marlins, Cubs, and Dodgers. Fans of each of these franchises cheered when he left and cried when he joined them. For a brief time in 2003 & 2004 Juan Pierre was a good baseball player. But that was three years ago. Dodger fans have been crying for a year now.

Who will make the crying stop?

Phil Gurnee, co-author of True Blue LA, takes a look at the current, past, and future of his Los Angeles Dodgers. Mixing a totally subjective viewpoint with statistical analysis, he looks at baseball from both sides of the mirror.

Discuss: