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It’s officially open MVP season. My spiritual take on the issue is on FreeDarko. Here are what I see as the immutable truths of the award:

1. If the vote was held today, Kobe Bryant would, and should, win by a fairly wide margin.

2. The only other real contenders are LeBron James and Chris Paul, although Paul is clearly the dark horse. (Note to CP3: If you want to steal an MVP from Kobe and LeBron, I suggest growing shoulder-length hair. A Canadian passport would be a nice touch, too.)

3. If the Cavaliers don’t finish with at least 50 wins, LeBron James will not win unless the Lakers suffer some sort of horrible collapse. (The latter is highly unlikely, but the former is possible. To wit: The Cavaliers are technically on a 46-win pace, but they’re 21-8 in 2008. Their second-best player, Anderson Varejao, has only played a quarter of their minutes due to holdout and injury, as has Sasha Pavlovic, their starting shooting guard last year. Cleveland went 0-6 when LeBron missed six games, Drew Gooden missed time when still a Cav, and they made a deadline trade that should significantly improve their team. While none of these things should be significant factors in the actual MVP voting, especially, as many have noted, since LeBron missed six games with a sprain on his off-hand while Kobe is playing through a tear in his shooting hand, they do make the Cavaliers highly likely to finish ahead of their “pace.” Any argument for LeBron James as MVP assumes the Cavaliers will finish with at least 49-50 wins.)

The rest of the factors that determine the MVP award are significantly more nebulous, as Kobe clearly has the better team-the more significant factor in recent MVP voting- while LeBron James has better individual stats in nearly every category except for overall shooting efficiency, which Kobe actually has a 1.4% edge over LeBron in because of his prowess from behind the arc and at the free-throw line.

One argument against Kobe Bryant for MVP this year would be that he’s not doing anything measurably different than he was last season, when he was not seen as a serious MVP candidate. He’s scoring fewer points, averages the exact same amount of assists, and rebounds at about the same clip as he did last season. This is understandable, as he now has teammates to share the ball with and no longer needs to do as much as he did in years prior.

However, while it’s understandable that he’s using fewer possessions, Kobe also hasn’t improved from last year on a per-possession basis. His shooting efficiency is exactly the same as it was last year, 58.0% to the tenth of a percentile. His “assist ratio” (percentage of possessions which end in an assist) has actually gone down from 25.5% to 24.6%, and he turns the ball over more on a per-possession basis. (10.9% to 12.3%.) And his rebound rate has stayed exactly the same.

There is one area that Kobe has excelled in this season over the last few, one that’s painfully obvious if you’ve been watching the Lakers this year, and especially if you’ve been watching them in the last three days; Kobe has re-gained his edge at the end of games and is an absolute force with the game on the line.

In years prior, I felt that Kobe’s title as “The Game’s Dominant Closer!” was more a function of his reputation than his actual play, because of his impressive past exploits that ultimately helped put rings on three of his fingers. (If you’re a Kobe fan, click on that link. Trust me.) Also, the fact that he was the game’s best scorer in all quarters for the last three years, as well as his game’s uncanny resemblance to the best clutch scorer of all time led to a reputation for clutch scoring prowess that I believe had exceeded his actual, though still considerable, exploits. (I also think the nickname helps. Is there any better closer nickname than “The Black Mamba?” Maybe “Agent Zero.”)

This year, he’s lived up to his reputation and then some. In “clutch” situations, defined by 82games.com as “4th quarter or overtime with under 5 minutes or less to play, neither team ahead or behind by more than 5 points,” here are Kobe’s points per 48 minutes (How many points he’d average if he played the entire game like he did in “clutch” situations) in the years since Shaq left:

04-05: 43.9

05-06: 47.3

06-07: 47.4

07-08: 53.0

Much more important is his eFG% (FG% if threes are given their proper value), and draw foul rates (what percentage of his field goal attempts on which he gets fouled):

04-05: 35.2%/14.3%

05-06: 39.0%/8.0%

06-07: 43.6%/14.8%

07-08: 51.4%/14.8%

That’s obviously an extremely significant improvement, and mostly due to the fact Kobe goes to the basket in crunch time more than he’s done in recent seasons, with 25% of his shots coming from “inside,” up from 16% the last two campaigns. (25% of his shots came from “inside” in 04-05, but oddly enough, he couldn’t hit a shot in crunch time that season, most likely due to injury. Kobe only shot 28.6% on jumpers in crunch time and 46.4% on shots from “inside” that weren’t dunks; this year, those percentages are 49.0% and 58.8%, respectively.) Also, in the “neither here nor there” file, 0% of Kobe’s shots in crunch time this year have been dunks.

Use that stat to win a bet. You’re welcome.

Kobe’s change in style of play during crunch time and resulting rise in effectiveness could be attributed to the dramatic improvement of Jordan Farmar, Vlad Radmanovic, and Sasha Vujacic, as well as the addition of Derek Fisher, meaning Kobe has the floor stretched for him far better these days, allowing him more space to drive. But the change in play isn’t nearly as dramatic overall as it is in clutch situations-his percentage of shots that are layups or dunks is only up from 23% to 26% this year as opposed to last year.

I’d say it’s that Kobe could be more inspired with the improved cast around him, but part of what makes Kobe Kobe is that he takes a ping-pong match as seriously as he takes Game 7 of the NBA Finals. (Watch him coldly fist-pump after Micheal Finley’s missed dunk in 1997 sealed his dunk contest win. This was a 19-year old kid. Music on video NSFW.) Whatever the reason, there’s no doubting that Kobe has been significantly better in crunch-time this year than he has been since Shaq left, and that it’s a big reason the Lakers are currently atop the Western Conference.

However, as impossibly great as Kobe Bryant has been in the clutch this season, LeBron James, statistically speaking, has been even better, with 59.3 points, a 53.4% eFG, and a 15.2% draw foul rate (and Bryant has a much smaller lead than you might think in clutch situations, 81.1% to 79.3%, even factoring in his clutch free-throw fest against Dallas last Sunday), not to mention James averages 7.8 assists in crunch time to Kobe’s 5.2, and turns the ball over less, with LeBron having played significantly more minutes in crunch-time.

Even given those numbers, it feels wrong to say that anybody could be better than Kobe in crunch-time this year after watching him all year and watching him absolutely dismantle the Kings Tuesday night. With both of them being so superlative in crunch time, it feels more appropriate to say “a different kind of best.” (I know statistics don’t even come close to fully describing a player’s crunch-time prowess. Believe me, I’m only the beginning of this argument.)

Team fourth quarter stats are also important here. (Quick note: NBA.com’s “ahead and behind” standings, which would normally give me up-to date numbers on trailing after 3 quarters, has been down for the last two days, so I’m using the less up-to-date www.hoopstats.com. Any inaccuracies should be blamed on David Stern.) The Cavaliers have an NBA-high 16 comeback wins this season and 22 losses when trailing going into the fourth quarter.

With LeBron James in the lineup, that record goes to 16-17, which is absolutely ridiculous-again, NBA.com is absolutely killing me right now, but few other teams are remotely close to winning half the games they play when they’re down after three quarters, with one of them being the Lakers, who are 7-10 when trailing after four quarters, for almost the same winning percentage as the Cavaliers, and Kobe can’t really be penalized for not going into the fourth quarter behind nearly as much as LeBron James does.

Fourth quarter point differential is another thing to look at. Again, Kobe, and by extension the Lakers, have shown improvement in this category this year, as they outscore their opponents 26.4-24.8 in the fourth, for a +1.6 margin that compares well with their margins of +3.7, +1.0, and +1.1 in the first three quarters; last year, the Lakers had a -0.3 margin in the fourth quarter, which was their worst quarter of the four- again, Kobe has improved in the fourth quarter this year.

The Cavaliers outscore their opponents 24.9-23.1 in the fourth quarter, for a margin of +1.8, which is extremely impressive when you consider their margins of -0.3, -0.6, and -2.2 in the first three.

As I said, the point of clutch play, even more than in the rest of the game, isn’t to rack up numbers, but to win games for your team. No games are a better reflection of a team’s, and hence its best player’s, execution in tight games than its record in games decided by three points or less, which by definition almost always come down to the final possession. The Cavaliers are 8-5 in those games, which puts them in a tie for the most wins decided by three points or less, although Houston and Portland are both 8-2 in those games and Golden State is 8-1. Los Angeles is 3-6 in games decided by 3 points or less. In games decided by 10 points or less, Los Angeles is 14-12; Cleveland is 27-13 in games decided by 10 points or less.

Kobe Bryant is typically referred to as the guy you would want taking the last shot for your team. Any game decided by three points or less is probably decided by the last shot, although it’s obviously not an infallible assumption-for example, a team down by five could hit a three as the buzzer sounds, making the game seem closer than it appears. So it’s time to go through every game the Cavaliers and Lakers have played decided by fewer than three points, in order:

-For the Lakers, the first was in fact the first game of the season, a 95-93 loss to the Houston Rockets. Here were the last 24 seconds of the game, starting with the score 92-88, Rockets:

0:24 Kobe Bryant makes two point shot (92-90)

0:13 Derek Fisher makes two point shot (Kobe Bryant assists, 92-92)

0:02 Shane Battier makes 3-point shot (95-92)

Then Kobe got fouled quickly before he could attempt a three, and did the right thing, making the first and intentionally missing the second, but the Lakers were unable to get a shot in off the offensive rebound. Kobe did all he could in this one, making and assisting on the baskets that tied the game before Battier hit a three.

-The next was also against Houston, but this time was a three point win over the Rockets. This one, though, didn’t actually come down to the final shot, as the Rockets were down by five with one second left before a Yao Ming layup (with a foul and offensive rebound that led to a Rafer Alston three to tie the game.)

-A 102-100 loss to the Nets: With the Lakers down three, Kobe was fouled shooting a three with six seconds left (nobody else in the league draws that foul), but missed the third free throw, which Nachbar rebounded, made one of two free throws before Radmanovic missed a three to end the game. It’s tough, but Kobe missed a game-tying free throw.

-106-108 defeat at the hands of the Warriors. A four-point game until Lamar Odom made a layup on the final possession of the game. Doesn’t count.

-100-99 over Memphis in Los Angeles’ first game without Andrew Bynum. Kobe made two threes and a layup to push the lead to three before Rudy Gay hit a three with 32 seconds left, then Kwame Brown made one of two free throws with 9.2 seconds left in what would be the game’s final point. I’ll give it to Kobe.

-Next was a 123-121 overtime thriller in Seattle, and while Kobe missed a three and turned the ball over in the final minute of regulation (during which the Lakers did not score), he hit the game-winning jumper with four seconds left.

-A 98-95 loss to Cleveland in which Kobe failed to get a three off after LeBron James hit two free throws to put his team up by three. Bad offensive execution by L.A. (and perhaps some questionable tactics from Phil Jackson) led to that one.

-A 89-90 loss to the Pistons, with Lamar Odom airballing the final shot after a Tayshaun Prince three to put the Lakers down by one.

-95-98 loss to Atlanta, with Sasha Vujacic making a layup to cut the lead to one, Joe Johnson making two free throws to stretch it back to three, and Derek Fisher missing a desperation 37-foot heave.

The only other exampl was last Sunday. Kobe played okay down the stretch, including two crucial free throws which meant Dirk Nowitzki’s three did not win the game, which led to overtime, where Kobe continued to play adequately in helping the Lakers to a win. (THAT WAS SARCASM. I WATCHED THE GAME.)

Now, the Cavaliers in games decided by three points or less:

-First was a 103-101 loss against Utah, where LeBron hit a game-tying three with six seconds left, only to watch Deron Williams take the resulting inbound and streak down the court for a layup. Not sure what more LeBron could have done there.

-Next was a 93-91 win over Sacramento, where Damon Jones missed a jumper during Cleveland’s final possession to give the Kings the last crack at a win, but Kevin Martin failed to make a three.

-A 116-117 loss to Orlando, which LeBron hit three free throws with two seconds left to send into overtime, and hit a jumper with 13 seconds left to put the Cavs up by one, but Dwight Howard hit two free throws with five seconds left, and LeBron was unable to get a foul, instead ending up with a jump ball in the game’s final possession.

-111-108 over Toronto: It was a four point game with three seconds to go, but Jason Kapono drilled a three. LeBron made two free throws to put it back to three, and the Raptors only had two seconds to heave a three.

-Overtime in Boston, 109-104: LeBron holds the ball on the final possession and misses the potential game-winner, Cavs win by five in overtime. Lucky win for Cleveland, made possible by Ray Allen missing two free throws with 23 seconds to go.

-93-96, Bobcats: LeBron didn’t play in that game. While LeBron missing time with injury is certainly relevant to the larger MVP debate, it doesn’t factor into the question of who’s a better closer, as it’s tough to make big plays in a suit.

-104-99 Bucks, 2 OT: LeBron misses potential game-winner on last possession in regulation, Devin Brown makes game-tying shot in first OT, Cavs win by five in second OT.

-132-124 Grizzlies, OT: LeBron misses potential game-winner on last possession in regulation, Cavs win handily in OT. To be fair, LeBron did have 25 points in the 4th and OT for a final line of 51/8/9.

-90-88 Spurs: LeBron makes game’s last basket with 33 seconds left, misses three with 5 seconds left, Ginobili unable to hit game-tying shot.

-110-108 loss to Phoenix: LeBron hits game-tying layup with 22 seconds to go, Shawn Marion hits game-winning jumper at the buzzer.

-98-95, Lakers: See Above.

-84-83, Blazers: LeBron hits game-winning layup with .4 seconds left.

-114-113, Celtics: James Posey hit a three as time expired to make it that close.

-89-88, Wizards: LeBron draws a foul with seven seconds left, makes both free throws, Wizards unable to answer.

-100-103, Bucks: LeBron makes game-tying layup with five seconds to go, Michael Redd hits an off-balance 27-foot three as time expires.

Well, that’s all of those. Look at the descending effort that happened there. It’s tough to draw great conclusions from that, as it’s pretty clear that for all the talk about “last shot players,” in a combined 121 games for LeBron and Kobe, it’s only come down to them with the final possession a few times. All I’m really going to draw is that LeBron’s lack of a reliable jumper does hurt him in tie-game situations, where the goal is to hold the ball as long as humanly possible and launch a jumper as time expires, as he’s missed a few of those but has won those games in overtime.

The final way to figure out how “clutch” a team has win is in wins above margin, as a team that is better or worse than their point differential says they should be is better or worse at scoring baskets at the right times, which is the definition of “clutch” play. The Lakers, with a +7.20, have the third-highest margin in the league, and the third-best record in the league. The Cavs are 16th in margin and 14th in wins, but if you take out the points from the games they played without LeBron James, their margin would probably be a lot closer to 4th, so neither team has a clear advantage in that category.

Overall, when it’s broken down, I can’t see any possible way that Kobe Bryant has been closing out games better than LeBron James this season. Not only is LBJ out-producing Kobe Bryant in every category statistically in crunch-time, his team is better in the fourth quarter than Kobe’s, not only against average but overall. (While that could be a function of the Lakers having far more blowouts going into the fourth than the Cavaliers, it’s extremely rare for a game to get so out-of-hand that the scrubs are in late for both teams, and remember that the Lakers have the league’s best bench, so you’d expect their second unit to significantly outscore the other team’s second unit in “garbage time.” None of this is perfect or definitive, but it’s the best I can do.)

LeBron’s team has more fourth-quarter comebacks and is markedly better in games decided by fewer than ten and fewer than three points, and while all the transcripts from the final sequences of those games are there for your viewing pleasure, I’d have a tough time saying LeBron has been worse when three of the four games he’s lost have come on game-winning baskets on the last possession of the game, immediately after LeBron had tied the game or given the Cavs a lead. And the one time he lost the game with the ball in his hands on the final possession was in a game that he’d sent to overtime with three free throws with two seconds left and made the go-ahead jumper with 16 seconds to go.

This isn’t to say that LeBron actually is a better closer than Kobe Bryant. A lot of the reason Kobe hasn’t had the kind of crunch-time exploits LeBron has this year is because his team is so much better than LeBron’s, and consequently he’s played a lot less in tight games. Also, while LeBron James has stepped up his defense this year, regularly locking his opponents down during crunch-time, Kobe is probably still better on that end at down the stretch. Still, to give Kobe credit in the MVP race for closing out games better than LeBron James would, I believe, for all the reasons given here, be unjustified.

Most importantly, they’ve both been so good closing out games that to call one “better” would be an insult to both of them. Tuesday night, I watched Kobe take the Kings out in the fourth quarter, then Wednesday I watched LeBron James score 15 points and dish out four assists to turn a 85-84 Knicks lead at the end of the third into a 119-105 Cavalier win, with LeBron finishing with 50/8/10, 4 steals, and 7/13 from three-point range.

Kobe’s still the front-runner in the MVP race despite his inferior stats because of the intangibles, many of them mentioned here by my colleague David Neiman, and the most important tangible of all; 43 wins in the West trumps 35 in the East no matter which way you slice it.

But to give credit to Kobe in the MVP race for things he’s not doing ultimately cheapens the plethora of things he is doing incredibly well in this magical year for him and his team.

FINAL NOTE: Try and keep comments on this to what is talked about in the post and not the MVP race in general, as much of that will be covered in the days to come, including Kobe and LeBron’s respective roles and their importance, why MVP awards are given and the notion of media bias, and other things. If you can think of something you’d like me to look at (as you can tell, I have too much time on my hands, which enables me to investigate this sort of thing), send me an email at johnkrolik@gmail.com.

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