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I’m not entirely sure it’s a good idea to write a post that essentially explains my NCAA Tourney pool bracket, because a) doing so might reveal a certain bias in whatever analysis I present both here and going forward (let’s get one thing straight- there is nothing more exciting than nailing as many picks as possible in your bracket, then waving that piece of paper in front of friends, family, and co-workers, particularly those who lost their national champion in the second round), and b) revealing my choices publicly could jinx them, simultaneously making it impossible for the aforementioned gloating to take place and opening me up to ridicule.

Still, this is SportsHubLA.com (tell all your friends!), and aside from the purple and gold, there’s no bigger story in town than Ben Howland’s Bruins. Office pool be damned, they merit some virtual ink.

So without further ado, I present my official UCLA preview, wherein I explain how they’ll get to the Final Four, then the title game… before losing to North Carolina, a final chosen by, I believe, 73% of the country:

WHY UCLA WILL WIN (ALMOST ALL) THEIR GAMES:

• Killer backcourt play. You can’t win without guards, and even before Russell Westbrook busted out, the Bruins still had one of the best in Darren Collison. Put the two of them together, and it’s as good a pairing as you’ll find in the field. A great combination of offensive skill, quickness, and defensive tenacity.
• Speaking of D, the Bruins are one of the only teams around who can keep opponents from scoring for minutes at a time. So while they’re not the most dynamic offensive team in the nation (though they’re better than they get credit for), even when they fall behind- a habit they might want to break, by the way- the Bruins are never out of a game because they can lock down like a collegiate version of the Celtics.
• Been there, done that. UCLA has a tournament tested coach coaching tournament tested players. Nobody’s gonna freak out, or start flinging the ball around like a grenade when the team hits a rough patch. Experience matters.
• Balance. Collison and Westbrook on the outside, Josh Shipp with the midrange game, Kevin Love inside and out, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute doing all the dirty work, Lorenzo Mata-Real to play the heavy in the post, when need be. No real holes, and for all their success, this is the first time the Bruins have a great inside presence. Huge boost to their title hopes.

HOW THEY’LL GET THERE:

Round One, vs. Mississippi Valley State (16)

Located about five miles from Greenwood and referred to by those in the know simply as “The Valley,” UCLA’s first round opponent has a great nickname (Delta Devils, Devilettes for the ladies), perfectly nice colors (green and white), and a host of famous alumni, including NFL greats Deacon Jones and Jerry Rice. That’s about all you need to know about them. Sure, there’s always the chance a 16 seed will knock off a one, but honestly I’m not entirely sure most people want to see it happen… at least not to their number one. At the very least, I’m willing to bet that despite L.A.’s love for great Hollywood stories, it’ll be a big night for the torch and pitchfork crowd if the Bruins end up on the wrong side of history.

Round Two, vs. BYU (8)

The Cougars, who will have beaten Texas A&M to reach the second round, are a snazzy little team. They’ve dominated the Mountain West for the last couple seasons, and at 25, their RPI rank is higher than Notre Dame, USC, Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Arkansas. They are not to be trifled with. Their leading scorer and rebounder is 6′11″ Trevor Plaisted, who put up 24/17 against North Carolina earlier in the year. Given that Love has struggled at times against strong, active bigs, there might be reason to worry. BYU runs with three guards, are fundamentally sound, and are plucky because all BYU teams are plucky and fundamentally sound. Still, after the Cougars knocked off UCLA in the Las Vegas Bowl, I refuse to predict an upset here and say definitively that L.A. is Provo’s bitch.

Sweet 16, vs. Connecticut (4)

UConn beats San Diego and Drake to reach this point, but here’s where the party ends. I’m not a Big East guy. Never have been. Even when a team or two manages to go deep into the tourney, I still don’t think the conference is anything but overrated by an east coast media machine who really, really want some of these squads to rise to former glory. They all cram into the Top 25 by scoring wins here and there against each other.

UConn did beat Indiana in Bloomington, but also lost to Gonzaga and Memphis out of conference. I’m not saying it’s a conference full of garbage teams- there’s always an elite squad somewhere in there- but when it comes down to it, I’ll generally default to the assumption that its representatives will lose. Unfounded personal bias? Maybe, perhaps likely. But even if you’re not like me and love the Big East, you should love UCLA more, at least in regards to this game.

Elite Eight, vs. Xavier (3)

I love this game. This might be my favorite non-Final Four matchup of the tournament, and I really hope it happens. How can you not like a team called the Muskateers, led by a 4′3″ point guard? Okay, Drew Lavender (great name, and it’s a shame he wasn’t around during the ABA era) might be 5′7″, but who cares? They’re a balanced, with experienced senior guards in Lavender and Stanley Burrell. Moreover, Xavier features a sophomore center named Jason Love, meaning someone somewhere gets to write the “Love is all you need” headline when it’s over.

They’ve beaten Creighton, K-State, Indiana, ASU, and gave Tennessee a quality run. But if you can keep them from scoring, something UCLA can do to anyone, they’re plenty beatable. Final Four, ho!

Final Four, vs. Texas (2)

I’ve got the Longhorns coming out of the South, and holy crap, they’ve got the potential to be really, really good- better than last year’s Kevin Durant Show, and a more highly evolved version of the team that beat UCLA 63-61 at Pauley on December 2. In that game, Texas threw a zone at the Bruins that hurt them early, but once UCLA figured it out they were able to get things done, nearly overcoming a 12 point halftime deficit. Love had a horrible day in what was his first truly big game in front of the LA crowd. Play this one 100 times, and they might just split 50/50.

Why does UCLA win the coin flip this time around? Every year, the Bruins seem to win one game in the tournament by the sheer force of Ben Howland’s stare searing his will into the head of every Bruins player, like a coaching version of Superman’s heat vision. This is that game.

Championship Game, vs. North Carolina (1, East)

This should be epic. The Heels and Bruins are actually a lot alike. Great guard play (Ty Lawson might be the only top shelf guard in the country faster than Collison), a dominating inside presence (Tyler Hansbrough), and have a tourney chip on their shoulder (UNC had a disappointing ‘07 tourney, knocked off by Georgetown in the Elite Eight last year, for UCLA, two straight Final Four trips without a trophy will do that). I just feel like Carolina is a little too big, a little too athletic… a little too everything for the Bruins.

And they have the misfortune of having to battle Hansbrough in what might- might- be his last game as a Heel. We’re talking about a kid who seems to be the embodiment of college hoops. He literally bleeds for the game, has a funny looking shot, and turns pink when he exerts himself like some sort of sharp-elbowed Norman Rockwell subject. Plus, while a lot of people love to think of him as tough, he’s actually slightly crazy, which is much, much better.

Just like last year against Florida, the Bruins will make it to the end of the rainbow, only to be squashed by the pot of gold. Disappointing, yes, but it beats a second round upset, right?

Brian Kamenetzky hosts the Lakers Blog and Blue Notes: A Dodgers Blog for the LA Times.com. He’s a contributing writer to ESPN The Magazine and ESPN.com, and can be heard regularly on the Steve Mason Show, on 710 ESPN radio in LA. Write him at bk@sportshubla.com.

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