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On July 31, 2004, the Dodgers traded catcher Paul Lo Duca, Guillermo Mota and Juan Encarnacion to the Florida Marlins for Brad Penny, Hee Seop Choi and minor league left-hander Bill Murphy.

Given Lo Duca’s persona as the heartandsoul™ of the first-place team, then-GM Paul DePodesta was excoriated for the deal. Here were the facts at the time:

• Paul Lo Duca was finishing the final months of his three-year/$7.25M deal. As a productive offensive catcher – albeit a 32-year-old one – Lo Duca was certain to demand a hefty raise in free agency. Sure enough, the Mets gave Lo Duca three years at $6M/per.
• At the time of the trade, Guillermo Mota was a lynchpin of a solid Dodger bullpen. On July 31, he boasted a nasty ERA/ERA+ of 2.14/191 in 52 games.
• Juan Encarnacion was in the first year of a two-year/$8M contract that would pay him $4.44M in 2005. At the time of the trade, Encarnacion had a dreadful OBP of .289 and an OPS+ of 84 [100 would be league average].
• In Brad Penny, the Dodgers picked up a 26-year-old pitcher who was earning under $4M (a figure that would rise to $5.1M for 2005), and whose ERA at the time of the trade was 3.15. During the 2005 season, DePodesta inked Penny to a three-year/$25.5M extension that includes an $8.75M 2009 club option.
• Hee Sop Choi never found his place with the Dodgers, though he posted a 107 OPS+ in 2005 while costing the Dodgers only $351,000, more than a $4M savings over an ineffectual Encarnacion.
• Bill Murphy was included along with outfielder Reggie Abercrombie, catcher Koyie Hill in a deal to fetch Steve Finley. Murphy has pitched 6 1/3 innings in the majors. Hill served as a backup catcher for Arizona in 2005, and for the Cubs in 2006. Abercrombie has posted a .592/55 OPS/OPS+ in parts of two Major League seasons.

For those who put a premium on chemistry and good guyness, the irony, of course, is that Lo Duca emerged as one of the colossal wankers in baseball over the past few seasons. Meanwhile, Penny — after some initial brattiness in his first season and a half with the Dodgers — has matured into a guy who has learned to pivot his cockiness into confidence. Character is a funny and evolutionary thing (see the disgruntlement of Pierre, Juan)

In July 2006 – two years after the trade — baseball mystic Bill Plaschke wrote, “Two seasons after joining the Dodgers in one of the most controversial trades in club history, Brad Penny was the starting pitcher for the National League All-Star team. And the truth is, the trade still stinks. Stunk then. Stinks now. Smells forever.”

Forever is a long time to a myopic. Three-and-a-half seasons later, Penny continues to anchor the Dodger staff…at a rate of $8.5M in 2008. Next year, at age 31, he’ll receive $8.75M – a full $1.25M less than Juan Pierre. With the possible exception of Jake Peavy’s four-year/$14.5M dollar deal between 2005-2008, Brad Penny has been one of the best value contracts in baseball among post-arbitration players over the past four seasons. And Paul Lo Duca, 36, has been Nationalized.

Forget that the presence of Lo Duca would’ve blocked Russell Martin’s development, and Guillermo Mota’s flameout, and that Finley was gotten for a song. Critics of the trade have never confronted the salient question, which is this: In cutting ties with an aging free agent catcher in favor of a young Top 20 starter entering his prime, isn’t it just possible that Paul DePodesta had enough foresight to recognize a 2008 spreadsheet opportunity when he saw it in 2004? Isn’t it foolish to pass judgment on a long-term move in the short-term? And isn’t it senseless to treat “character” and “leadership” as if they’re static features, especially when you’re talking about 25-year-old jocks?

Kevin Arnovitz spends far too much time at professional sporting events in Los Angeles. He’s written about sports for Slate, The New Republic and National Public Radio, and authors Clipperblog. In civilian life, he works as the Commentary Editor at Marketplace, heard on your local NPR affiliate.

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