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Those of you looking for an emotional buoy heading into tonight’s critical Game 5 of the Western Conference semi-final between the Lakers and Jazz might want to take a peek at this little number from ESPN.com’s John Hollinger, who runs the numbers and points out that despite losing Games 3 and 4 in Salt Lake City, history is still very much on the side of the purple and gold:

Since the NBA-ABA merger, the “road” team has won the series only 17.5 percent of the time in best-of-7s when the home team won the first four games — seven out of 40. Five of them came in the past four years, which tricks us into thinking it’s more common than it really is: In the two decades prior, it happened only twice.

If you go by history, in fact, the odds of the Spurs, Cavs and Jazz winning their series are actually slightly worse now than they were when the series began.

In conference semifinals, the team with home-court advantage wins 79.2 percent of the time. But in best-of-7s in which the home team wins the first four games, that number improves to 82.5 percent.

Good news for Lakers fans, bad news for Jazz supporters. Of course, there is not a set percentage- at least not one mentioned- for home teams who enter Game 5 with their uber-star nursing a bad back, and at least as far as tonight’s tussle is concerned, that’s the only figure that matters. Kobe says he’ll play (no surprise). How well? That’s an entirely different question. Here are five things to watch for:

1) Kobe’s back. What, you thought we’d knock it down the list just because we mentioned it a sentence ago? Please. Really, it should be numbers 1-5, but we don’t want to be totally lazy. How Bryant’s lower back responds could very well dictate everything else that happens. If he’s reasonably whole, the Jazz will have to respect Kobe’s ability to penetrate off the dribble or around the screen and roll, which obviously opens holes for the Lakers’ offense.  If he’s limited to being a jumpshooter, Utah will have the luxury of laying off, or the Lakers will have to drop Kobe into the post more often than they otherwise might.  Either way, the Lakers become that much less dynamic.

2 ) Foul trouble.  Now that Deron Williams is officially back and rolling, the Derek Fisher has to stay on the floor.  Williams (and Utah, for that matter) have basically eviscerated Jordan Farmar.  Phil Jackson has gone to Sasha Vujacic at the point more often, but as Sunday’s OT drive and kick to nobody demonstrates, Sasha doesn’t always make the best decisions when dribbling.  For Utah, Carlos Boozer must stay on the floor, which means the Lakers have to attack him and continue to try and gum up his game with their length.

3) A Big Beginning.  In Games 1 and 2, the Lakers had the Jazz playing from behind early, changing the whole complexion o the game.  Though the Lakers certainly showed it can be done, to try and dig out of a hole in a hostile environment is no easy task.  The benefits for the Lakers would be even greater, though, than normal.  Any margin they can build means that much less work for Kobe on both ends, which could come in handy for Game 6.

4 ) Seriously, What to Do With Deron?  Even with Fisher on the court, it’s pretty clear that Williams has found his groove. Jackson has spent all sorts of time talking about how LA needs to limit penetration.  To do it, they’ll likely have to throw a variety of looks at Williams.  Mark him early coming up half court, so he can’t initiate the offense with as much depth.  Attack him hard on the screen and roll (New Orleans did that well against Tony Parker and San Antonio last night).  When he gets physical- and as a stocky, strong player he will- get physical back.  Make him work on the other end.

5) Did we mention Kobe’s back?  Yes?  Whatever.  It’s THE ISSUE of the night.  Will his teammates try to overcompensate?  Will Kobe, in an effort to show he’s okay?  How much of the game will be spent sizing up Kobe’s health, and what he can and cannot do?  Will they fall behind while figuring it out?  (Our guess?  Kobe comes out hot, and does everything he can to try and ensure some late rest.)

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