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Coming off his incredible seven inning, 13 strikeout performance in last Sunday’s win over the Marlins, I look around and wonder what it takes for a town to recognize what they have. While fans are rightfully bemoaning the lack of offense produced by the Dodgers this year, on the mound Chad Billingsley is developing into one of the best young pitchers the Dodgers have ever had, and nobody seems to talk about it.

Billingsley has stepped into the void created by an ineffective and injured Brad Penny and given the Dodgers the ace- quality work they need. More hoopla has been bestowed upon the wunderkind Clayton Kershaw, but at 23 years old, Billingsley is already an elite pitcher. Many in Los Angeles still think of him as another youngster, perhaps not living up to his hype. Let me spell it out for those of you still on the fence: Chad Billingsley’s performance has gone well beyond hype. He may not have taken the field in New York last Tuesday, but compared to some of the names that did, Billingsley is by that measure an All Star caliber hurler.

At the break Billingsley has an ERA+ of 135. This follows his 2007 season when he posted an ERA+ of 138. Those are elite numbers not achieved by some of the best farm grown Dodgers pitchers until well after their 25th birthdays. Billingsley is set to have two before his 24th.                  

ERA+, the ratio of the league’s ERA (adjusted to the pitcher’s ballpark) to that of the pitcher, is a very solid metric for measuring the performance of a pitcher.  Anything above 100 is above average.  So how does Billingsley’s ERA+ stack up against some of the most notable home-grown hurlers in LA Dodgers history?

• Orel Hershiser was not even in the rotation for the Dodgers until he turned 25. So while Billingsley is toiling in the big leagues, Orel was still honing his craft in the minors. Hershiser hit the ground running once he arrived, and by his 25th birthday he was posting plus 130 ERA+ seasons. Hershiser would end his career with five ERA+ seasons above 130.  Billingsley is on track to equal 40% of that mark already.
• Ismael Valdes arrived faster. By 21 he was already in the rotation and from the age of 21 - 23 he was one of the best pitchers on the team. At the age of 23 he took his game to another level and with an ERA+ of 146 (Ranked 5th in the NL) he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. Unfortunately he also peaked at the age of 23 and never came close to being the same pitcher again. Maybe those 650 innings he threw before his 24th birthday had something to do with it.
• Bob Welch was firmly entrenched in the Dodger rotation by the age of 23, but it was not until age 26 (ERA+ of 136) that he actually put together as good a season as Billingsley is putting up right now.
• HOFer Don Sutton didn’t have a year like Billingsley’s ‘08 campaign until he was 26. Sutton, known for his consistency more then his dominance, only posted three seasons out of his 22 that would be considered above average. His highest ERA+ seasons were 161,160, and 144, then his best figures were all in the 120s.
• Chan Ho Park had some good seasons for the Dodgers from age 24 - 28, but only once in his career was he able to post an ERA+ better than 130, and that did not happen until he was 27.
• You all remember how great Ramon Martinez was when he broke in? At age 22, he went 20-6, but statistically that season wasn’t as good as the one Billingsley had last year, and is working through in ‘08 based on ERA+. That year, Martinez’s ERA+ was 126.  Yes, his win-loss record was outstanding and will eclipse Billingsley’s this year, but more a product of the superior team on which Martinez played.   If the Dodgers could hit, Billingsley would be a threat to win 20 games this year.
• Okay, now for the real test. No 20 year old has ever posted a season for the Los Angeles Dodgers like Fernando Valenzuela. Based on ERA+, Billingsley’ 2007 season, as a 22 year old, matches up. However Billingsley only threw 147 innings last year. This year is a better test, as he is on pace to throw about 206 innings.  Valenzuela threw only 192 innings in the abbreviated 1981 season due to the strike. Continuing to use ERA+ as the metric of choice for this exercise, Fernando only had two seasons in which he was above 130. His Cy Young season in 1981 (135) and his best season in 1985 (141).

For further comparison not related to age, let us take a quick look at the numbers of these past Dodger stars after 55 starts, which is what Billingsley has under his belt heading into tonight’s . I’m going to sort by ERA+.  (These numbers were provided courtesy of Eric Stephen.)

That ain’t bad.  But despite a strong track record of performance, Chad Billingsley still seems in many ways to be the best kept secret in Los Angeles. He shouldn’t be. Instead, Billingsley should be pitching before the world, in All Star games. Maybe next year.

But should the Dodgers get a chance to compete on the postseason stage, you can bet their young horse on the hill helped them get there, and if the Blue is to make it past the first round, he’ll have a large hand in that, too.

Phil Gurnee, co-author of True Blue LA, takes a look at the current, past, and future of his Los Angeles Dodgers. Mixing a totally subjective viewpoint with statistical analysis, he looks at baseball from both sides of the mirror.

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