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Patriots at Chargers (-5) (Sunday, 5:15 p.m. PST, NBC)

THE SCENE:

Two years ago, LaDainian Tomlinson thought Bill Belichick wasn’t exactly the classiest individual in San Diego. Last season, Nick Hardwick called Richard Seymour a dirty, cheap, pompous [expletive]. Seymour says Chargers linebacker Shaun Phillips will have a “grudge against the Patriots the rest of his career.” And some still say this match-up has lost its luster.

Verbal jousting aside, the Patriots have turned the lights out (sorry, it was too easy) on San Diego’s season in back-to-back years. Both losses obviously had a particularly nasty taste for the Chargers. Sunday night’s game is the first time New England has returned to the “Q” since several players were seen mocking Shawne Merriman at midfield in ‘06. Expect to feel the desperation, much like a playoff game, as both teams are looking up in divisions they were expected to win, their ‘08 playoffs having gone from “virtual guarantees” in August to “restlessly hopeful” in week six.

PERSONALITIES:

New England Patriots

Matt Cassel, QB #16. ESPN’s John Clayton said Cassel’s been a lot like Kyle Orton. Simply avoiding big mistakes, though, is not enough to beat the Chargers. On the road, with John-freaking-Madden announcing in prime time, a ferocious crowd in his ear and an athletic defense in his space, Cassel will almost certainly get his biggest share of adversity thus far.

Randy Moss, WR #81. Belichick challenged Moss to be a leader, something that’s never been asked of the 11-year veteran superstar. When Tom Brady went down, naysayers pointed to Moss’ malaise in Oakland and predicted the downfall of the decade’s winningest franchise. Well, if last week’s six catches and 116 yards against the 49ers is any indication, Moss has not given up.

Brandon Meriweather, S #31. He’s got two interceptions and is athletic enough to stick Antonio Gates. Click the link on Meriweather’s name above and watch the player highlights from last week’s game in San Francisco.

San Diego Chargers

Tomlinson, RB #21. After torching the Raiders in the fourth quarter and passing the  century mark on the ground, it was reasonable to assume that L.T. was back. An aggressive Miami defense that held the Chargers star to 35 yards on 12 carries proved that assumption incorrect. In five games, Tomlinson is averaging only 3.7 yards per carry and has been involved less in the passing game (80 yards receiving) than any other time in his career. Are his paltry numbers simply related to his nagging toe injury or has the league’s best runner lost a step?

Hardwick, C #61. Hardwick’s comments about Seymour may have drawn the headlines, but the center’s ability to contain Pro Bowl nose tackle Vince Wilfork is the real story. Both players are technically sound, and while Hardwick does not have the brute strength to overpower Wilfork, he’s got great hands, along with a great intelligence in blitz recognition and line calls.

Antoine Cason, CB #20. In three wideout sets, the rookie corner will be asked to halt shifty receiver Wes Welker. Through his first five games, Cason has been impressive, but this will be his biggest challenge so far. Welker leads the Patriots in receptions (27) and is second in yards (251), but hasn’t caught a pass longer than 26 yards. Cason will undoubtedly give up a few catches, but he must keep Welker in front of him and make tackles in the open field.

Jamal Williams, NT #76. He’s supposed to be disrupting the running game, but hampered by nagging injuries, he only has 11 tackles. If Patriots center Dan Koppen can manhandle Williams one-on-one the Chargers defense will spend a lot of time on the field.

ISSUES:

The outstanding individual match-ups. Antonio Cromartie lining up across from Moss, Wilfork attacking Hardwick, Belichick’s defensive mindedness versus Norm Turner’s offensive prowess and Gates vs. Meriweather are just four of the match-ups that will decide Sunday’s game. From a pure athletic standpoint, the Cromartie-Moss duel has breathtaking potential. It’s like watching T-Mac v. Kobe battle in shoulder pads.

Chargers offense needs quality AND quantity. No one doubts the quick-strike ability of San Diego’s offense. However, they haven’t proved that they can sustain drives and eat up valuable time. They average just 55 plays per game, 31st in the league.  Being 5th in yards and 15th in yards per play doesn’t mean much if the Chargers can’t keep their defense off the field. Turner told the Union-Tribune that “time of possession has been an issue.” Big plays are fine, but they need to improve the number of intermediate gains. Getting Tomlinson receptions out of the backfield could potentially help.

The Patriots defensive line. Seymour, Wilfork, Ty Warren and Jarvis Green make up a Patriots line that does just about everything well. In the 3-4 scheme, the linemen are expected to control the line of scrimmage, which allows the second level of defenders to make plays. Even though the Patriots disguise coverages and blitz packages as well as anyone, the engine of their defense comes from that front 3+1. Quarterback Philip Rivers has a quick release and is effective at stepping up in the pocket, but a relentless Wilfork could alter the Chargers game plan. Zone running plays are typically more effective than stretches or sweeps because the Patriots have proven vulnerable to cutback lanes.

Building Cassels in the sand. Against the 49ers, Cassel stood tall in the pocket, poised and comfortable, and made good decisions. On a deep touchdown to Moss, he even appeared a little Brady-esqe. San Diego will need to disrupt Cassel’s comfort level. That’s where Phillips comes in. The Chargers defensive line is not known for pressuring the passer because they are flanked by outside linebackers in the 3-4 scheme. With the speedy Jyles Tucker likely out on the opposite side, the Pats and Cassel will give Phillips a lot of attention. Will the young quarterback build on his improvement? Or will the tide rise and tear him down?

TURNING POINT:

In a game of this magnitude, the intangibles will likely separate the two teams. Both have excellent depth and present a variety of offensive and defensive looks. Back-up running backs Darren Sproles (Chargers) and Kevin Faulk (Patriots) could play a huge role. Last week, Faulk rushed for two touchdowns for the first time in his 10-year NFL career and Belichick praised his venerable super-sub for his ability to do a little bit of everything. Sproles is a more explosive, less crafty version of Faulk, and forces the Patriots to game-plan for speed they haven’t seen from San Diego before.

Both teams have excellent special teams units, but the Chargers may have a slight edge.

WEATHER:

Qualcomm Stadium, Mission Valley CA. Clear, 55-degrees.

INJURIES:

San Diego:Doubtful - Jyles Tucker, LB (hamstring); Day-to-Day - Chris Chambers, WR (ankle)

New England: Doubtful - Kelley Washington, WR (ankle); Lewis Sanders, CB (hamstring); Eric Alexander, LB (hamstring).

PREDICTION:

The game will be tense and chippy, but the Chargers have the most to lose and their nerves will ultimately get to them. Patriots 23, Chargers 17.

EP

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