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Falcons (4-3) at Raiders (2-5) — Sunday, 1:15 p.m. PST, FOX

THE SCENE:

In a race to become the most undisciplined laughingstock in professional sports, the Raiders have lapped themselves. Despite getting beat down 29-10 by the Ravens, Oakland defenders taunted Baltimore fans, rowdily celebrated tackles and waved their arms at their opponent’s bench like helpless birds flapping against a merciless wind. Linebacker Thomas Howard summed it up best: “I’m having fun. If we’re up 30 or down 30, I’m going to give you what I am…You can’t tell me I can’t have fun.”

And nothing’s more fun than losing, I suppose.

This week, the overweening Raiders return to their loyal crow’s nest, primed to become bird seed once again, this time against the Atlanta Falcons.
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PERSONALITIES:

Atlanta Falcons

Matt Ryan, QB #2. A week after the Raiders were defeated by a first round rookie quarterback, they get their chance to relive the experience. Ryan is polished and makes heady plays for a guy embarking on his eighth career start. Last week, he took a beating from a Philly team he grew up idolizing, but still managed two touchdowns and 277 yards. But like most young QBs, you have to take the good with the bad.  Ryan has been streaky. After throwing a TD on the first pass of his career (week one versus Detroit), his second didn’t come until fifteen quarters later.

Roddy White, WR #84. He’s not only become a reliable target for Ryan, but also a force throughout the league. Through seven games, he’s caught 43 passes (6th in the NFL) for 679 yards (3rd) and five touchdowns. Offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey uses White as more than just a deep threat, running him on routes near the line of scrimmage that allow the fourth year receiver to use his agility in the open field. Against a Raiders defense that likes to press receivers in man-to-man coverage, White could continue his success. Last week, against an aggressive Eagles defense, he caught two touchdowns.

Oakland Raiders

DeAngelo Hall, CB #23. It’s a reunion with the Falcons, the team that made Hall a first round draft pick five years ago. But that doesn’t mean a celebration is in the works. Atlanta traded him because he was at odds with, well, everyone in the organization.  He’s still playing with that same recklessness, but might being getting a clue. After seven games, he picked off three passes by free-wheeling in the secondary. Against the Falcons on Sunday expect to see a more disciplined Hall. “I’m starting to fully understand what they’re (the Raiders) trying to do, and I’m buying into it,” he told the Sacramento Bee. Let’s hope he’s telling the truth.  Hall and corner Nnamdi Asomugha give the Raiders a distinct advantage pressing Atlanta’s receivers at the line.

Rob Ryan, defensive coordinator. The Ravens sustained long drives and killed the Raiders on third down (converting 55% of their chances). Atlanta, who possess the ball for an average of 29:07 minutes per game (10th in the NFL), is similar in that they use running back Michael Turner to grind out yardage. To stop the Falcons, Ryan must be more aggressive in his defensive play calling. This could not only help stop Turner and backup running back Jerious Norwood, but force a still inexperienced Matt Ryan into mistakes. The problem: Oakland’s defense is getting no help from its offense (more on that later).

Darren McFadden, RB #20. After missing the first game of his pro career last Sunday with a lingering turf toe issue, McFadden might be back on the field versus the Falcons.  Assuming, of course, another toe problem doesn’t prevent a return. McFadden’s absence has only made his importance to the Raiders more evident. The team struggled to move the ball and never threatened the Ravens with any home run ability. Granted, Baltimore’s defense is as stout as it gets. But you’ve got to believe that McFadden’s presence could have softened it up enough gain more than 47 yards on 19 carries (Oakland’s worst effort of the season). Atlanta’s defense is 23rd against the rush, and more suited to pressure the quarterback with speedy ends Jamaal Anderson and John Abraham and smallish linebacker Michael Boley. A Raiders’ ground game, perhaps headed by McFadden, will be the most important component of their offense on Sunday.

ISSUES:

What are we playing for? Unless coach Tom Cable pulls off a minor miracle (six wins in their final nine games), Oakland is in jeopardy of finishing with their sixth straight losing season. The day(s) of Bill Callahan winning with Jon Gruden’s players seem almost mythical at this juncture. Even worse, comments like Howard’s (above) make it appear that they’ve already mailed it in. Still, there’s nine games to go. And what I’m about to say may sound more ludicrous than Chris Bridges flying on Spaceball One (for the few folks who that got reference… wow). But the Raiders are still in the NL… uh… AFC West race. They get first place Denver (4-3, two games up on Oakland) and second place San Diego. And their remaining schedule shakes out to one of the league’s easiest. But they are the Raiders, a kingdom where “Just win baby” was excommunicated a long time ago.

The do-run-run-run.Atlanta’s running game, led by Turner, is the catalyst for their entire offensive philosophy. But much like the young Falcons themselves, that facet of their offense has been inconsistent from week to week. Their 27-14 loss to Philly was no different. Two weeks after cruising to 176 yards on the ground versus Green Bay, the Falcons were held to 77.  Part of the reason for their inconsistency is a shaky offensive line, evident by Wednesday’s resigning of 37-year-old, veteran tackle Wayne Gandy and punctuated by reports that former Trojan Sam Baker’s status for the rest of the season is uncertain after back surgery. The Raiders, who are banged up on their defensive line as well, should own a slight advantage in the middle of their defense. Much like last week, Kirk Morrison (13 tackles) will play a key role in halting the Falcons.

Decisions in the clutch. Oakland is 31st in the league in 3rd down conversion rate (25.3%). Part of that has to do with not trusting JaMarcus Russell to make great decisions. The young QB may have thrown 33 passes against Baltimore, but that was out of pure necessity. Oakland couldn’t run the ball and the Ravens jumped out to a 19-0 half time lead. Atlanta will be expecting the Raiders to establish the run, so we may see just as much throwing out of Russell. The important factor is how Russell and offensive coordinator Greg Knapp react with the game on the line. Against the Jets, Russell completed a key pass to Zach Miller in overtime which led to Sebastian Janikowski’s game-winning FG. The Raiders will need more plays along those lines to beat Atlanta.

TURNING POINT:

Atlanta has also struggled away from the Georgia Dome (1-3 in four road games). With rain forecast, it will be difficult for Matt Ryan to resurrect his usual chemistry with White. If Asomugha and Hall make the rookie QB find other options- like receiver Michael Jenkins- and force the Falcons into a predictable, one-dimensional offense, it could lead to a Raider victory.

WEATHER:

McAfee Coliseum, Oakland CA. Cloudy, 18 mph wind, 70% chance of rain, 60-degrees.

LINE: ATL (-3)

INJURIES:

Atlanta: Out - Sam Baker, T (back); Questionable - Anderson, DE (concussion), Todd Weiner, T (knee); Probable - Brian Finneran, WR (fingers).

Oakland:IR (this week) - Justin Griffith, FB (knee); Questionable - Derrick Burgess, DE (triceps), Gibril Wilson, S (toe), McFadden, RB (toe), Jon Alston, LB (foot). Chris Johnson, CB (back).

PREDICTION:

It could be a muddy slugfest and I like Michael Turner in that kind of match-up. Falcons 20, Raiders 13.

EP

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